DTZ has published the industry’s first shopping centre guide to provide city and scheme level data. The DTZ ‘European Retail Guide – Shopping Centres’, launched yesterday at MIPIM, assesses socio-economic factors and the strength of current shopping centre provision across 40 European cities to form a view on future growth prospects for existing schemes and the potential for new developments.

Did you know?

  • The European average for shopping centre provision per thousand inhabitants is 382 sq m. There is huge variance across Europe from Vilnius, which has the lowest amount of stock at 130 sq m per thousand population to Stockholm which has 879 sq m
  • Currently, total shopping centre stock across Europe is almost 150m sq m. France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK account for 60% of this stock
  • Although Western Europe accounts for the largest share of existing stock, Istanbul and the CEE cities account for the largest share of the European shopping centre development pipeline
  • The European average retail sales growth is forecast at 2% per annum for the period 2012-16. Higher than average growth is expected in the CEE countries (e.g. 7.3% per annum in Vilnius, 6.4% in Riga) and the Nordics (e.g. 3.4% per annum in Helsinki). The lowest growth forecasts are in southern Europe (e.g. minus 1.2% in Lisbon, minus 0.3% in Milan).

Magali Marton, Head of CEMEA Research at DTZ and co-author of the guide said: “The ongoing uncertain economic climate has led to muted consumer spending in many European markets. The economic slowdown and growing difficulties in securing financing and governmental permits in many countries is limiting new shopping centre development. However, with huge variance in the level of retail development in cities across Europe, and demand for shopping centre space holding up, there is scope for shopping centre investment over the coming years. In the more developed markets, future investment will be channelled into upgrading existing schemes. In developing markets, new schemes will be the focus, addressing undersupply and capitalising on strong retail sales growth forecasts.”

Karine Woodford, Head of Occupier Research at DTZ and co-author of the guide added: “The opportunities that exist across Europe for shopping centre development are good news for retailers looking to expand. Retailers will continue to focus on prime centres, where there is greater guarantee of success. This presents shopping centre developers who are redeveloping existing centres, or building new schemes, the potential to attract new brands and subsequently, new customers.”

DTZ is advising on over 500 shopping centres throughout Europe, totalling over 900,000 sq m.

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